The Aral Sea loses it Eastern Lobe: NASA’s Earth Observatory

In October 2014, NASA’s Earth Observatory claimed that Aral Sea, has dried and is at the verge of vanish.

As per NASA’s observatory, the sea is now just a vast toxic desert and its disappearance is also affecting the local climate.

Recently the Earth Observatory posted some images that show the extent of the lake’s recession over past 14 years. The released image of Aral Sea was taken by NASA’s Terra satellite in August 2014 and was released on 2 October 2014.

The damage was recorded the most in 2014, as the eastern lobe of the South Aral Sea that is the center of the original lake has dried completely. The researchers have predicted that Aral Sea will be vanished completely by 2020.

NASA reveled this by comparing pair of images taken from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite.

This images shows that the sea without its eastern lobe taken on August 19, 2014 and compared to the approximate location of the shoreline in 1960 (black outline).

 Image acquired on 24^th August 2014

Image acquired on 25^th August 2000.

About Aral Sea

The Aral Sea is an endorheic basin containing the remnants of a large lake lying between Kazakhstan in the north and Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region of Uzbekistan, in the south.

The name “Aral” translates as "Sea of Islands", referring to about 1,534 islands that once dotted its waters in Uzbek.

Formerly it was one of the four largest lakes in the world with an area of 68,000 km²; the Aral Sea has been steadily shrinking since the 1960s after the rivers that fed it were diverted by Soviet irrigation projects. 

By 2007, the lake declined to 10 percent of its original size by splitting into four lakes, namely the North Aral Sea, the eastern and western basins of the once far larger South Aral Sea and one smaller lake between the North and South Aral Seas.

Further, by 2009, the southeastern lake had disappeared and the southwestern lake had retreated to a thin strip at the extreme west of the former southern sea.

Cause of its disappearance

Aral Sea is fed by two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, till 1960s.

These two rivers brought snowmelt from mountains to the southeast and local rainfall to the sea.

But in 1960s, the erstwhile Soviet Union diverted the water of the two rivers through canals and dams to supply agriculture of cotton and other agricultural products in the region, leading to stoppage of water into Aral Sea.

Impact of vanishing Aral on environment, economy, and public health

The ecosystems of the Aral Sea and the river deltas feeding into it have been nearly destroyed, not least because of the much higher salinity.

The receding sea has left huge plains covered with salt and toxic chemicals – the results of weapons testing, industrial projects, and pesticides and fertilizer runoff – which are picked up and carried away by the wind as toxic dust and spread to the surrounding area.

The land around the Aral Sea is heavily polluted, and the people living in the area are suffering from a lack of fresh water and health problems, including high rates of certain forms of cancer and lung diseases.

Respiratory illnesses, including tuberculosis (most of which is drug resistant) and cancer, digestive disorders, anaemia, and infectious diseases are common ailments in the region.

Liver, kidney, and eye problems can also be attributed to the toxic dust storms. Health concerns associated with the region are a cause for an unusually high fatality rate amongst vulnerable parts of the population.

The child mortality rate is 75 in every 1,000 newborns and maternity death is 12 in every 1,000 women.

Crops in the region are destroyed by salt being deposited onto the land. Vast salt plains exposed by the shrinking Aral have produced dust storms, making regional winters colder and summers hotter.

The Aral Sea fishing industry, which in its heyday had employed some 40,000 and reportedly produced one-sixth of the Soviet Union's entire fish catch, has been devastated, and former fishing towns along the original shores have become ship graveyards.

The town of Moynaq in Uzbekistan had a thriving harbor and fishing industry that employed about 30,000 people; now it lies miles from the shore.

Fishing boats lie scattered on the dry land that was once covered by water; many have been there for 20 years.

The only significant fishing company left in the area has its fish shipped from the Baltic Sea, thousands of kilometers away.

First Ebola case diagnosed in the US

The United States in last week of September 2014 diagnosed its first case of the deadly Ebola virus.

The person was diagnosed for the disease after being hospitalised with the symptoms that were confirmed to be caused by Ebola. 

As per the US health officials, the person became infected with the deadly Ebola virus in Liberia and traveled to Texas, US.

The patient left Liberia on 19 September 2014. The symptoms of the virus on the patient became apparent on 24 September 2014. He was admitted to hospital in Texas on 28 September 2014 and since then has been put in isolation.

In short about Ebola virus:

• Symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous system damage.
• Spread by body fluids, such as blood and saliva.
• Fatality rate can reach 90% - but current outbreak has mortality rate of about 70%.
• Incubation period is two to 21 days.
• There is no proven vaccine or cure.
• Supportive care such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhoea and vomiting can help recovery.
• Fruit bats, a delicacy for some West Africans, are considered to be virus's natural host.

India and the US to boost strategic ties

On 29th September 2014, India and the United States issued Vision Statement to boost strategic ties.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued vision Statement titled “Chalein Saath-Saath: Forward Together We Go” after he met US President Barack Obama at the dinner at White House in Washington DC.

This joint statement aims to expand and deepen the strategic partnership between the largest and oldest democracies in the world.

It also sought to benefit of not only the two nations but also for the benefit of the world.

Key highlights of the Vision Statement:

• Security and fight terrorism: Both the countries would cooperate in security and fight terrorism. It is called for an inclusive rule based global order in which India will assume greater multilateral responsibility, including a reformed United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
• Climate change: Both the countries also determined to work together to tackle the threat of climate change. The two countries also committed to cooperate to address the consequences of unchecked pollution through cooperation among governments, science and academic communities of both the nations.
• Energy: Both the countries will partner to ensure that they have affordable, clean, reliable, and diverse sources of energy, including efforts to bring American-origin nuclear power technologies to India.
• Economy & Trade: Two countries would also work to ensure that economic growth brought better livelihoods for all people. The vision statement also stressed the importance of open markets and fair and transparent practices to allow trade to flourish.
• Health: The joint statement also called for jointly countering the infectious diseases, eliminate maternal and child deaths, and work to eradicate poverty for all and ensure the fullest empowerment of women in a secure environment.
• Political: Both the nation highlighting the mission of their founding fathers emphasised to provide equal opportunity for our people through democracy and freedom.
• Nuclear disarmament and Civil Nuclear deal: The statement also committed to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction and reduce the salience of nuclear weapons so as to promote universal, verifiable, and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament.

Afghanistan signed Bilateral Security Agreement with the US

On 30^th September 2014, Afghanistan signed Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US. The main aim of agreement is to allow some US troops to remain in the country till 2015.

National Security Adviser of Afghanistan Mohammad Hanif Atmar and US Ambassador James Cunningham signed BSA at the presidential palace of Afghanistan in Kabul.

Signing of the BSA was the first act of the new government in Afghanistan headed by President Ashraf Ghani who was sworn-in on 29 September 2014.

Key features of Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA):

• After December 2014, 12000 foreign military personnel will stay in Afghanistan when the combat mission of Afghanistan's US-led NATO force ends.
• After the end combat mission of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in December 2014, 10000 US soldiers will remain in Afghanistan. 
• American troops will continue training, advising and equipping Afghan soldiers and police, and to carry out counter-terrorism operations.
• This agreement will allow US to hold a civil or criminal trial or take other disciplinary action, as appropriate, in the territory of Afghanistan in the case that a US soldier is accused of a crime.
• It does not require US forces to intervene if Afghanistan comes under foreign attack.
• Foreign troops would not be able to enter holy sites or civilian homes. This was considered as a longstanding demand of former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai.
• The US has the right to keep bases in Afghanistan as long as the security pact is in force, and in return it promises to raise funds to train and equip the Afghan security forces, which now number 350000.

Background for signing this agreement:

Talks on the security agreement began in November 2012. The aim of these talks was to reach an agreement by May 2013.

However, former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai had refused to sign the deal in a disagreement that came to symbolise the breakdown of Afghan-US relations.

During the poll campaign trail, both Ghani and his poll rival Abdullah Abdullah had vowed to reverse Karzai's decision.

The signing of the deal by newly elected President Ashraf Ghani is intended to fix  the ties with United States.

Ms. J Jayalalithaa jailed for 4 years in Disproportionate Assets Case, fined Rs.100 crore

On 27^th September 2014, then Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa was held guilty in a disproportionate assets case by a special court in Bangalore.

Special Judge John Michael Cunha convicted her and three others - Sasikala and her relatives V.N. Sudhakaran and J. Illavarasi guilty.

This court sentenced J. Jayalalithaa, 4 years of simple imprisonment with Rs 100 crore fine under the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988. Her co-accused were sentenced to 4 years of simple imprisonment with a fine Rs 10 crore each. The failure of payment of the fine would result in another additional year of sentence.

Ms. J Jayalalithaa has become the first serving chief minister to be convicted in a 

Disproportionate Assets Case and to step down on account of a court sentence.

Pronouncing the order, the special Judge held Jayalalithaa guilty of amassing wealth disproportionate to known sources of her income under

• Section 109 Indian Penal Code (IPC).
• Section 120 (b) of the Indian Penal Code (IPC).
• Section 13 of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

Section 13 i.e. Criminal misconduct by a public servant of Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988

A public servant is said to commit the offence of criminal misconduct if he/she accepts or obtains or agrees to accept or attempts to obtain

• while holding office as a public servant, obtains for any person any valuable thing or pecuniary advantage without any public interest; or
• if he
  1. by corrupt or illegal means, obtains for himself or for any other person any valuable thing or pecuniary advantage; or
  2. by abusing his position as a public servant, obtains for himself or for any other person any valuable thing or pecuniary advantage; or
• if he dishonestly or fraudulently misappropriates or converts for his own use any public property entrusted to him or under his control as a public servant or allows any other person so to do; or
• any valuable thing without consideration or for a consideration which he knows to be inadequate from any person whom he knows to have been; or
• any gratification illegaly or
• If he or any person on his behalf, is in possession resources or property disproportionate to his known sources of income.

As per this Act, "known sources of income" means income received from any lawful source and such receipt has been intimated in accordance with the provisions of any law, rules or orders for the time being applicable to a public servant.

• Any public servant who commits criminal misconduct shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which shall be not less than one year but which may extend to seven years and shall also be liable to fine.

What is this case about?

Ms. J Jayalalithaa, three-time chief minister of Tamil Nadu was accused of misusing her office during her first tenure as chief minister during 1991-96 to amass properties worth Rs 66.65 crores and depositing the amount in her benami accounts.

The assets under the purview of the case are the farm houses and bungalows in Chennai, agricultural land in Tamil Nadu, a farm house in Hyderabad, a tea estate in the Nilgiris, valuable jewelry, industrial sheds, cash deposits and investments in banks and investments and a set of luxury cars.

In 1996, Dr Subramanian Swamy, then the leader of Janta Party, filed complaint against Jayalalitha alleging that during her tenure as chief minister from 1991 to 1996, she amassed properties worth Rs 66.65 crores disproportionate to her known sources of income.

In 1997, raid at her Poes garden residence recovered 800 kg (1,800 lb) silver, 28 kg (62 lb) gold, 750 pairs of shoes, 10,500 sarees, 91 watches and other valuables.

Case trial:

The court’s verdict in this case was given after an 18-years the case was filed.

The time-line of this case is as follows:

• 14 June 1996- Subramanian Swamy files complaint against Jayalalitha against the amassed wealth.
• 18 June 1996- The then DMK led government registeres First Investigation Report (FIR) against Jayalalithaa.
• 21 June 1996- On the directions of Principal Sessions Court, Latika Saran, the then DSP of Tamil Nadu investigates the complaint.
• 4 June 1997- Chargesheet filed in the case against four of the accused Jayalalithaa, Sasikala, Ilavarasi and Sudhakaran.
• 21 October 1997- The special court frames charges against all the accused.
• 14 May 2001- Jayalalithaa led ADMK comes back to power in Tamil Nadu.
• 28 February 2003- K. Anbazhagan, the secretary of DMK, files appeal in Supreme Court to transfer proceedings outside Tamil Nadu quoting fair trial.
• 18 November 2003- Supreme Court orders the trial to be moved Bangalore, Karnataka.
• March 2005- Trial commences in special court in Bangalore.
• December 2010 to February 2011- Re-examination of witnesses by prosecution.
• 20, 21 October and 22, 23 November 2011- Jayalalithaa appears in person in court and answers questions.
• 13 August 2012- Special Public Prosecutor, B.V. Acharya resigns quoting efforts transferring him.
• 2 February 2013- G. Bhawani Singh appointed as the special public prosecutor.
• 26 August 2013- Karnataka government removes G. Bhawani Singh as prosecutor.
• 07 September 2013- Supreme court reinstates G. Bhawani Singh as the judge.
• 28 August 2014- Trial concludes and court decides 20 September as the date of sentence.
• 16 September 2014- Court allows appeal of Jayalalithaa to move proceedings to different court and sentence to 27 September on the grounds of security.
• 27 September 2014- Court pronounces verdict - all four convicted were sentenced. Jayalalithaa is presently lodged in the Parappana Agrahara central jail in Bangalore, as also three others.
• 29 September 2014- Jayalalithaa files bail plea in Karnataka HC.

Why J. Jayalalithaa resigned as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu?

After this verdict, Jayalalithaa became the first Chief Minister to lose the post due to the conviction while in office.

She became the first Member of Legislative Assembly from the Tamil Nadu, third Member of all state assemblies in India and the seventh politician to lose her post after the July 2013 

Supreme Court judgement on Representation of the People Act, 1951 which prevents member of the state legislative assemblies and members of parliament from holding the posts after conviction.

So, Ms. J Jayalalithaa after this judgment of Special Court was disqualified as an MLA and lost her position as Chief Minister.

She would now be barred from contesting elections for the period conviction plus 6 years i.e. total 10 of years.

Section 8 of Representation of the People Act, 1951

Section 8-Disqualification on conviction for certain offences:

A person convicted of any offence and sentenced to imprisonment for more than two years shall be disqualified from the date of such conviction and shall continue to be disqualified for a further period of six years since his release.

Following are the politicians to lose their post under Representation of the People Act, 1951:

1. Congress Rajya Sabha MP Rasheed Masood.
2. RJD leader and ex-Chief minister of Bihar Lalu Prasad Yadav.
3. JD (U) leader Jagadish Sharma.
4. Rajya Sabha MP T.M. Selvaganapathy.

Chief Ministers of different states to have been charged and jailed in various corruption cases

Jayalalithaa is among six former chief ministers of different states to have been charged and jailed in various corruption cases.

1. Lalu Prasad Yadav, the former CM of Bihar.
2. Jagannath Mishra, the former CM of Bihar.
3. Madhu Khoda, the former CM of Jharkhand.
4. Om Prakash Chautala, the former CM of Haryana.
5. Former CM of Karnataka, B. S. Yeddyurappa was charged in land allotment case.

In short about Ms. J. Jayalalithaa

Jayalalithaa Jayaram  commonly referred to as Jayalalithaa, is an Indian politician and a former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

She held the office of Chief Minister from 1991 to 1996, briefly in 2001, from 2002 to 2006 and from 2011 to September 2014.

She was a popular actress in Tamil cinema before her entry into politics and have appeared in over 140 Tamil, Telugu, and Kannada films apart from some films in English and Hindi.

She is the general secretary of All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

She is called 'Amma' ('Mother') and 'Puratchi Thalaivi' ('Revolutionary Leader') by her followers.

Jayalalithaa has denied claims that she was introduced to politics by M. G. Ramachandran (Actor turned politician and founder of AIADMK).

She was a member of the Rajya Sabha elected from Tamil Nadu during 1984–89.

Soon after the death of Ramachandran, Jayalalithaa proclaimed herself his political heir.

She was the second female chief minister of Tamil Nadu after Janaki Ramachandran.

World population to reach 11 billion by 2100: UN study

UN Study titled World population stabilization unlikely this century has revealed that the World population will reach 11 billion by 2100 and it was highly unlikely that global population will stabilize by the end of 2100. 

On 18 September 2014, this study was published in the online edition of Journal Science.

The UN study projected the population growth on basis of data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. 

Analysis of these data revealed that, there is an 80 percent probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100.

Highlights of the report:

• The World will have 2 billion more people on Earth than expected due to high birth rates in Africa.
• Sub-saharan Africa is anticipated to be the fastest growing region, with population to rise from one billion in 2014 to four billion by 2100. 
• There is an 80 percent chance that the population in Africa will be between 3.5 and 5.1 billion people by 2100.
• In Asia the population is projected to peak at around 5 billion people in 2050 and then start decline. 
• The North America, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean are all expected to be under one billion each.
• The issue of ageing population will also affect countries whose populations are very young today. Brazil, for example, currently has 8.6 people of working age for every person over 65, but that will fall to 1.5 by 2100, well below the current level in Japan. China and India will face the same issue as Brazil.

What is Bayesian probabilistic methodology?

Bayesian probability is one of the different interpretations of the concept of probability.

The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses, i.e., thepropositions whose truth or falsity is uncertain.

The term "Bayesian" refers to the 18th century mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes, who provided the first mathematical treatment of a non-trivial problem of Bayesian inference.

Mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace pioneered and popularised what is now called Bayesian probability

Bayesian methods are characterized by the following concepts and procedures:

1. The use of random variables, or, more generally, unknown quantities, to model all sources of uncertainty in statistical models. This also includes uncertainty resulting from lack of information (see also the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty).
2. The need to determine the prior probability distribution taking into account the available (prior) information.
3. The sequential use of the Bayes' formula: when more data become available, calculate the posterior distribution using the Bayes' formula; subsequently, the posterior distribution becomes the next prior.
4. For the frequentist a hypothesisis a proposition (which must be either true or false), so that the frequentist probability of a hypothesis is either one or zero. In Bayesian statistics, a probability can be assigned to a hypothesis that can differ from 0 or 1 if the truth value is uncertain.

China Pushes 'Maritime Silk Road' in South, Southeast Asia

On 16^th September 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping won Sri Lanka's support for a proposed maritime "Silk Road" which aims linking China with Europe.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was able gain Sri Lanka’s support during his visit to Island nation as part of his South Asia tour which aimed to seek closer relations and support for his vision of a modern "Silk Road" sea route between China and Europe.

President Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader to visit Sri Lanka in 28 years.

Both nations signed 27 agreements in areas, including highways and the construction of a joint coastal and marine research center. They also agreed to start negotiations on a free trade agreement.

As per China including Sri Lanka in maritime Silk Road will help to strengthen each other’s cooperation in areas such as port construction and development, development of coastal industrial parks, maritime economy and maritime security.

Earlier Chinese investment in the southern port of Hambantota (Southern Province, Sri Lanka) led many to speculation that Sri Lanka is meant to be a key stop along the maritime Silk Road.

Chinese President Xi even planned to help launch Colombo Port City with $1.4 billion in Chinese loans.

At present, China has become Sri Lanka's largest lender, providing more than $6 billion through September 2013 for port facilities, highways and a new international airport.

Two-way trade totaled more than $3 billion last year. It is considered as 368 percent increase since Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa came to power in 2005.

Seventeen percent of Sri Lanka's total imports are from China.

China also supplied weapons to the government during Sri Lanka's 27-year civil war that ended in 2009 with the defeat of ethnic Tamil separatists, and has defended the Indian 

Ocean island nation from allegations of human rights abuses and calls for a U.N. investigation into alleged war crimes.

China wants Maldives to join Maritime Silk Road project

China has invited the Maldives to actively participate in the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) project an initiative to string together partnerships with countries in the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

China and the Maldives even signed agreements to upgrade the Maldives’ airport and to build a bridge from Male, the capital, to the island hosting the Maldives’ international airport.

Maldives President Yameen suggested that the new bridge could be called “the ‘China Bridge’ to symbolize the friendly ties between the two countries.

‘Project Mausam’ – India’s answer to China’s ‘Maritime Silk Road

India will soon launch “Project Mausam”.

This project is considered as PM Narendra Modi government’s foreign policy initiative to counter-balance China’s rising influence in Indian Ocean region.

It is inspired by India’s historical role as the focal point for trade in the Indian Ocean.

India’s Project Mausam is a transnational program aimed to restore its ancient maritime routes and cultural links with republics in the region.

This project emphasizes on the natural wind phenomenon, particularly monsoon winds used by Indian sailors in ancient times for maritime trade, that has formed relations among the nations and groups linked by the Indian Ocean.

Project Mausam main purposes is to determine the versatile Indian Ocean and to expand its influence in East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka to the Southeast Asian archipelago.

India government will try to pull on its ancient connections with nations in this region as it proposes an alternative, which could counter-balance the maritime silk route of China.

India also faces the difficult job of matching China’s stress on building landmark infrastructure in the region, including ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Historical background for Project Mausam:

In pre-modern times, sailors used seasonal monsoons (mausam, मौसम means weather or season in many South Asian languages) to swiftly journey across the Indian Ocean.

This trip usually involved starting from one of the edges of the ocean, around today’s 

Indonesia or east Africa, sailing to India, stopping, and allowing another crew to wait for another monsoon to sail to the other edge of the Indian Ocean, as different monsoon winds blew in different directions at different times of the year.

Crews would frequently winter for months in India or at one of the edges of the ocean waiting for another season of monsoons.

This allowed for significant cultural exchanges as diverse people from different places would often spend months at a time living in foreign countries (Islam is said to have entered Indonesia in this manner).

Importance of Project Mausam

Project Mausam would allow India to reestablish its ties with its ancient trade partners and re-establish an “Indian Ocean world” along the littoral of the Indian Ocean.

This world would stretch from east Africa, along the Arabian Peninsula, past southern Iran to the major countries of South Asia and thence to Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia.